We’ll try to state the painfully obvious only once in this post: Covid-19 is going to be with us for a long time to come and it’s going to change the way many things are done.
We’ve begun with that statement for a reason. It’s a launching point for some observations and recommendations we want to make regarding predictions and projections. Should you make them or avoid them? Under what circumstances? How should you justify them or return to them as time passes?
The opening statement of this post is itself a prediction. It stakes out a position, but one which can’t be proven from what is known today. Will Covid-19 be with us for a long time? That’s very likely, but perhaps it will disappear as suddenly and mysteriously as it arrived. After all, SARS flared up in late 2002, infected more than 8,400 people, killed nearly 800 of those infected, and then vanished: not a single case has been reported since May, 2004. That’s a highly unusual example, however. Almost every infectious disease known to humans over the past 1,000 years is still with us today. We have vaccines and treatments for many of them, but they remain.
So while the odds are in favor of that statement (“Covid-19 is going to be with us for a long time to come”) being true, it’s not a guarantee. We feel safe writing it, but others might not.
When it comes to predicting anything—from the likelihood that a coronavirus vaccine will be available in less than two years, to next quarter’s stock market average, to tomorrow’s weather—there is risk and uncertainty involved. Different organizations are willing to accept and account for different levels of uncertainty and, in the case of projections and predictions, factor them into their public statements.
An organization must always be aware of how predictions reflect on its image. Some might be perfectly comfortable making bold and highly uncertain predictions based on incomplete and conflicting information. Others might make reasonable projections based on all available data, but only on specific topics. Some might follow a policy that bars them from making any public predictions at all.
Since we began with Covid-19, let’s continue with it as an example. Last week, the US recorded a very unfortunate milestone: 100,000 deaths due to the disease. In the first week of April if someone had chosen to predict that this milestone would be reached on May 27th, that would have been a risky position. The available data made it difficult: estimates from different models varied widely, confidence in those estimates varied just as widely, and in some places non-pharmaceutical interventions (social distancing, stay-at-home orders, etc.) had only just begun. The course the pandemic would take in the US was highly uncertain, and a very specific prediction of a number of deaths on a particular date was a gamble.
Yet by the first week of May such a prediction was far less risky. By then almost every major model was forecasting 100,000 deaths by June 1st. The ranges from most models, both in dates and deaths, all suggested similar outcomes. Without relying on those models, anyone who took the time to look at the data could have reasonably drawn the same conclusion, even accounting for an unreasonably optimistic turnaround in the trends known at that time. Predicting the US would reach this figure by or before June 1st, sadly, would have been a safe decision on May 10th.
We have worked with many clients who have reasons for being extra cautious about the language used in their content. Many law firms, for instance, require that their content make clear that no outcome is being predicted or guaranteed: their policies forbid stating that a firm will win a client’s case, or even that a firm will agree to take any individual case in the first place. It is, however, not a problem to explain that the firm takes each case seriously and that its attorneys work hard for every client, or to describe the results of a successful case as similar to what the firm hopes to achieve for every client.
This is not predictive language, but can still be optimistic and enthusiastic.
On the other hand, when a message is informational only, that same law firm might be comfortable making a reasonable prediction based on past and current data. A post discussing the human and financial costs of drunk driving crashes, for instance, might rely on years of well-documented statistics when referring to the rates of crashes and injuries anticipated in the coming year, or over a busy holiday period. When we work on material of this sort, it is always thoroughly sourced and referenced, so a client can have confidence that these projections are made with the best available data and with the best intent.
Covid-19 has reshuffled the deck on how many things are, and will be, approached. When it comes to what used to be “safe” predictions (such as expected crashes), decades of reliable data isn’t as useful as it once was. When it comes to broader, more sweeping projections of what will happen in the coming months, it’s even less safe. (We’re preparing to post this on the morning of May 31st. Who could have predicted only a week ago that there would be major demonstrations, including violent activity, in dozens of cities across the US?)
Even the extent of uncertainty is itself uncertain. It’s risky to make predictions about large changes (“society will never be the same and here’s why…”). But it’s just as risky to predict that little or nothing will change. Uncertain times are unsettling for many reasons, but primarily because of the uncertainty itself.
You and your clients have many things on your minds at this time. Some of those things have always been there, but others are entirely new. The content of your web site might not be a major priority. Although it just as easily could be, depending on your specific business: US internet use was up between 50% and 70% in just the first few weeks of large-scale stay-at-home orders. If people are spending more time online, that’s where you need to be to get their attention. The channels your business relied on last year, and the importance of each, might be very different by next year.
If content is on your radar, it’s our advice that you produce material that is reassuring. Highlighting uncertainty or making predictions is not necessarily a good strategy. Your firm should not shy away from recognizing uncertainty, but it should focus on presenting itself as a steady but flexible enterprise which will survive disruption, or even thrive through it. It’s important to show that you understand how complex this moment in history is, but that you’re staying on top of things for the benefit of those you serve.
At Waltham WordWorks, we work closely with our clients to understand what their needs are and then provide the best content solution to meet those needs. We can help you find the right tone and strike the right balance to prove your value to your customers at this time—and moving forward—despite uncertainty. When you’re ready, contact us to discuss how we can help.
Note that for the foreseeable future Waltham WordWorks will continue to follow two policies we’ve operated by since March:
- Content on this blog will, more often than not, relate to the pandemic.
- Our services will remain discounted for all new and established clients. See this message for some additional details, but please contact us if you have any questions.
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